India’s Nuclear Policy and Global Disarmament: Challenges and Opportunities

Introduction

• The International Day for the Total Elimination of nuclear weapons emphasizes global disarmament efforts.
• The Treaty on the Prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPNW), which came into effect in 2021, aims to entirely ban the use, development, and possession of nuclear weapons.
• India, a nuclear power outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), plays a critical role in shaping the future of nuclear disarmament.

Evolution of Global Nuclear Disarmament Efforts

1. Early Era (1945-1960):

• • The nuclear age began with the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
  • The Soviet Union tested its first nuclear device in 1949, fuelling the arms race.
  • Efforts like the Baruch Plan (1946) and Atoms for Peace (1953) were proposed but failed due to Cold War tensions.
  • India, under Homi Bhabha, began its nuclear program in the 1950s, initially advocating for global disarmament.

2. Non-Proliferation Treaty and Partial Test Ban (1960-1970):

• • The 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty limited nuclear tests to underground.
  • The NPT (1968) aimed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, recognizing five nuclear powers.
  • India rejected the NPT, viewing it as discriminatory, and continued developing nuclear technology.

3. SALT, START, and Regional Nuclear-Free Zones (1970-1990):

• • SALT I and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (1972) were key outcomes of US-USSR negotiations.
  • The Treaty of Tlatelolco created the first Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Latin America.
  • India conducted its first nuclear test, Smiling Buddha, in 1974.

4. Post-Cold War Disarmament (1990-2000):

• • The end of the Cold War led to disarmament treaties like START I (1991), reducing deployed warheads.
  • The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) opened for signatures in 1996, but key states, including India, have not ratified it.
  • India and Pakistan declared themselves nuclear powers in 1998 with a series of nuclear tests.

5. Challenges and New Initiatives (2000-2010):

• • The US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, citing security threats.
  • India’s civil nuclear agreement with the US in 2008 marked significant progress in nuclear diplomacy.

6. Humanitarian Initiative and TPNW (2010-2020):

• • The Humanitarian Initiative (2010) emphasized the catastrophic consequences of nuclear use, leading to the TPNW (2017).
  • India maintained its nuclear doctrine of credible minimum deterrence and did not sign the TPNW.

7. Recent Challenges (2020-Present):

• • The Ukraine crisis and increased nuclear rhetoric have raised concerns over nuclear risks.
  • Emerging technologies, such as hypersonic missiles and AI-supported warfare, complicate nuclear stability.

India’s Current Nuclear-Related Issues

1. Balancing Deterrence with Disarmament:

• • India holds approximately 160 nuclear warheads, while advocating for universal disarmament.
  • India continues to modernize its nuclear capabilities, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), like the K-4.

2. Managing the China-Pakistan Nuclear Axis:

• • China’s support for Pakistan’s nuclear program poses a significant security challenge for India.
  • India has developed longer-range missiles like Agni-V and is focusing on sea-based deterrence to address this threat.

3. Nuclear Doctrine and No First Use (NFU) Policy:

• • India’s No First Use (NFU) policy faces scrutiny, with discussions around possible revisions due to Pakistan’s development of tactical nuclear weapons.
  • In 2019, India’s Defence Minister hinted that the NFU policy could change based on evolving circumstances.

4. Nuclear Security and Safety:

• • India’s growing nuclear infrastructure, including 23 operational reactors, raises concerns over safety and security.
  • While India has maintained a strong safety record, incidents like the Mayapuri radiation leak in 2010 revealed potential vulnerabilities.

5. Civil Nuclear Cooperation and NSG Membership:

• • India continues to seek Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership but faces opposition from China.
  • Despite a 2008 NSG waiver and civil nuclear agreements with countries like Japan, full NSG membership remains elusive.

6. Technological Advancements and Strategic Stability:

• • India is advancing its missile technology, including MIRVs and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems, raising concerns about triggering an arms race in the region.

7. Nuclear Energy Expansion and Environmental Concerns:

• • India plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity to meet climate goals, but faces opposition due to safety concerns, as seen in protests against plants like Kudankulam and Jaitapur.

Measures India Can Adopt to Balance Deterrence and Disarmament

1. Strengthen Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD):

• • India can define and focus on a quality-over-quantity approach for its nuclear arsenal, emphasizing restraint while ensuring credible deterrence.

2. Promote Regional Strategic Stability Dialogues:

• • India can initiate strategic dialogues with regional powers, focusing on risk reduction and confidence-building, particularly with Pakistan.

3. Engage in Global Disarmament Initiatives:

• • India can take a more proactive role in global forums, advocating for a multilateral No First Use agreement and contributing to the Conference on Disarmament.

4. Invest in Verification Technologies:

• • India can contribute to nuclear disarmament verification technologies, showcasing its technical expertise, as seen in space and satellite advancements like Chandrayaan-3.

5. Strengthen Domestic Controls and Export Regulations:

• • India can enhance its domestic nuclear safeguards and export regulations, tightening control over dual-use technologies to improve its global nuclear security ranking.

6. Promote Nuclear Energy for Sustainable Development:

• • India can focus on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, especially through projects like the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), which uses a thorium fuel cycle.

7. Engage in Track 1.5 and Track 2 Diplomacy:

• • India can actively support informal diplomacy channels to discuss innovative nuclear risk reduction strategies, fostering relationships that could support official negotiations.

Conclusion

India faces the dual challenge of maintaining its national security through nuclear deterrence while supporting the global disarmament agenda. By modernizing its nuclear forces, advocating for responsible nuclear practices, and promoting peaceful nuclear applications, India can maintain its status as a key player in the international nuclear order while striving for eventual disarmament.

MAINS QUESTION

“India’s stance on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) demonstrates a complex balance between its strategic interests and global disarmament commitments.” Critically analyse this statement in light of India’s historical and contemporary nuclear policy.