Elections in Pakistan and its Impact on Relation with India

Why in Focus?

On February 8, Pakistan voted to elect a leader tasked with managing one of the country’s worst-ever economic crises, an escalating terrorism problem that has recently kindled tensions with Afghanistan and Iran, and a long-standing border impasse with India.

Why Important?

The recent elections in Pakistan are not just a pivotal event in the country’s political history but also hold significant implications for India-Pakistan relations. These developments are relevant for students and aspirants of competitive exams, particularly those preparing for the Civil Services. In the context of the UPSC Civil Services Examination, this topic intersects with several key areas of the syllabus. For the Prelims, it aligns with the section on ‘Current events of national and international importance,‘ while for the Mains, it is pertinent to ‘General Studies Paper II’ which includes International Relations and ‘General Studies Paper III’ covering aspects of Security and Disaster Management. This article will provide a comprehensive analysis, contextualizing the significance of the Pakistani elections within the broader scope of India-Pakistan relations from a historical perspective and discuss the anticipated ramifications of the election on bilateral relations. 

Current Election in Pakistan:

1. The current parliamentary elections in Pakistan has been marred with controversy and skepticism, as former Prime Minister Imran Khan is barred from participating amid allegations of military intervention. This event continues the long history of political instability and military influence in the country, dating back to periods of dictatorship under leaders like General Ayub Khan and General Musharraf.
2. In the current political landscape, Nawaz Sharif is anticipated to make a significant comeback in Pakistani politics, bolstered by substantial support from the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir. This support positions him as a likely frontrunner in the elections, despite the exclusion of other major candidates and concerns over the election’s fairness.

Below are the possibilities that could emerge post election: The two primary outcomes projected for the upcoming elections in Pakistan include either Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML-N] securing a straightforward majority to form the government independently or a strategic coalition government between PML-N and Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). In the coalition scenario, with Sharif as the senior partner, this arrangement is seen as a way for the Pakistan Army to maintain greater control over the civilian government, thereby limiting Sharif’s capacity for unpredictability in governance.

What’s at Stake?

1. Pakistan is facing a severe economic crisis characterized by the Pakistani rupee hitting a record low, skyrocketing inflation affecting essentials like food, fuel, and medicine, shrinking foreign reserves, and the threat of default. Additionally, the country has suffered extensive damage from floods and faces frequent blackouts, adding to the economic turmoil. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan criticized the IMF loan program initiated in 2019, and efforts to rejoin it have led to harsh austerity measures.
2. The security situation in Pakistan is deteriorating, particularly in the ungoverned western border regions. 2023 saw the highest number of terrorism-related deaths since 2016, with over 1,500 fatalities. Tensions with Afghanistan have escalated, leading to the deportation of nearly two million Afghan migrants. Moreover, recent cross-border conflicts with Iran, including air strikes, have heightened regional instability.
3. These economic and security challenges may increase the military’s influence in the upcoming elections, as the army remains the most trusted institution in the country, far surpassing politicians, the judiciary, and the electoral commission in popularity. Imran Khan has attempted to shift this power dynamic by organizing protests against the military’s involvement in politics.

Role of International Players:

USA:

1. Throughout the 21st century, Pakistan was a significant beneficiary of U.S. aid due to its strategic role in the Afghanistan war, but relations with Washington have been strained over perceptions of Islamabad’s insufficient action against militants. Under Prime Minister Imran Khan, these tensions escalated due to his criticism of the U.S. and efforts to strengthen ties with China. Additionally, Pakistan’s recent distancing from President Joe Biden’s global democracy promotion initiatives has prompted some experts to believe that the U.S. is adopting a cautious approach to Islamabad’s electoral issues, unlike its more assertive stance on Bangladesh’s elections, in an effort to prevent further political destabilization.

INDIA

1. Central issues affecting the regional dynamics include ongoing territorial disputes over Kashmir, the challenge of cross-border terrorism, and the risks associated with nuclear brinkmanship. India’s primary concern is the cessation of all terrorist activities originating from across its western border, maintaining a firm stance that dialogue and terrorism cannot coexist.
2. With India also set to conduct general elections this year, there is speculation among analysts that if Nawaz Sharif assumes power in Pakistan, it could lead to another term for India’s incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, potentially paving the way for a normalization of relations between the two countries.

China

1. Beijing has emerged as a crucial ally for Islamabad, offering significant military support and extensive investment through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly in projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Although some BRI projects have experienced slowdowns and stalls, analysts anticipate that a new government under Nawaz Sharif could revive and potentially accelerate these initiatives, thereby strengthening cooperation between Pakistan and China.

Afghanistan

1. The Russian intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 elevated Pakistan’s geopolitical significance, drawing international focus and legitimizing General Zia-ul-Haq’s military regime. This shift resulted in considerable foreign aid and war-related assistance, boosting Pakistan’s economy through increased remittances and fueling rapid industrial growth and domestic demand during the 1980s. However, it also led to the emergence of a substantial parallel and illegal economy, estimated at 20-30% of Pakistan’s GDP, which had profound effects on the country’s economic stability and governance.

Iran

1. The influence of Iran on Pakistan’s foreign policy is multifaceted, encompassing religious, cultural, and geopolitical dimensions. Being neighbouring countries with significant Shia Muslim populations, Iran and Pakistan have shared interests in regional stability and economic cooperation. However, Iran’s relationship with India, particularly in the context of the Chabahar Port development, also affects Pakistan’s strategic considerations.

What Implications will this Dynamics Hold for India-Pakistan Relations? 

History

The phrase “Pakistan is not a country with a military, but a military with a country” reflects the deep involvement of the Pakistani military in its conflicts with India, including three major wars under military dictators Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, and Pervez Musharraf. These conflicts, often stemming from miscalculations of military strength and ambitions over Kashmir, highlight the significant influence of the military in Pakistan’s foreign policy. The trend continues with China equipping Pakistan with advanced military systems like J-10C fighters and Type 054A frigates, reminiscent of past U.S. military support that bolstered a false sense of superiority leading to the 1965 war.

Despite various Pakistani governments’ attempts to normalize relations with India, these efforts have been undermined by persistent allegations of Pakistan’s involvement in cross-border terrorism, particularly in Kashmir. Indian leaders, from Indira Gandhi to Narendra Modi, have made significant efforts for rapprochement, but the Pakistani military’s influence has often derailed these initiatives, as seen in the aftermath of Vajpayee’s Lahore visit and the subsequent Kargil conflict. This complex dynamic continues to define Indo-Pak relations, with the Pakistani military’s role being a crucial factor in the regional power equation.

Present Options for India?

Given this politico–economic – military situation in Pakistan where real power will continue to dwell with the Pakistan Army and the newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan will at best be a 2IC (2nd in charge) looking after economic revival, what should the Government of India be doing vis-à-vis Pakistan?

1. The current balance of power heavily favours India over Pakistan, with India’s economy being ten times larger and its global political influence on the rise, positioning it to soon become the world’s third-largest economy. India has successfully navigated its diplomatic relations with major powers and countries in the Middle East, strengthening its international standing.
2. Pakistan, in contrast, is grappling with a severe economic crisis, internal political and ethnic instability, and the challenges of terrorism. It also faces strained relations with its neighbours Afghanistan and Iran to the west and northwest, contributing to a complex regional scenario that India needs to assess carefully without initiating any premature actions.
3. India’s strategy should remain focused on the cessation of all terrorist activities from across its western border, adhering to the policy that dialogue and terrorism cannot coexist. India should maintain its stance of minimal interaction with Pakistan, refraining from being the first to initiate any changes in current policies, especially in areas like people-to-people exchanges, sports, and film collaborations.

What should India do if Pakistan sides with full agreement amongst its military and civilian leadership, and offers to resume some kind of normal relationship between the two countries?

Here are a few possible scenarios and policy suggestions ahead

1. If Pakistan proposes reinstating High Commissioners, India should positively respond by appointing an Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan and welcoming Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Delhi. This reinstatement would serve as a vital communication channel, benefiting both governments.
2. Regarding the resumption of the Composite Dialogue Process, India should advocate for a gradual, step-by-step approach without rushing into high-level dialogues. Initial discussions should begin at the level of Joint Secretaries from each Foreign Ministry, focusing on identifying any areas of potential agreement, however small.
3. India should be cautious about Pakistan’s tendency to propose high-level dialogues, including meetings between Foreign Ministers or Prime Ministers. Such engagements can create unrealistic public expectations. India should maintain that any dialogue should start at a working level to manage outcomes effectively.
4. In terms of trade, India should continue its openness to resuming trade with Pakistan, particularly if Pakistan offers to open trade in select commodities. Indian exports could significantly benefit, and Pakistani consumers could access goods at lower prices, making it a mutually advantageous arrangement despite Pakistan’s apprehensions.
5. With respect to people-to-people exchanges, including cricket and film ties, India should continue its current policy of allowing medical visits from Pakistan but should not expand these exchanges in the short term. Such a move could be perceived as inconsistent, which is not the message India intends to convey in its diplomatic relations with Pakistan.

Way Forward?

(a) India should develop a military–to–military channel of communication beyond the current DGMO hotline. Perhaps, on the margins of international conferences attended by both the Indian and Pakistani Chiefs of Army Staff, we permit them a golf game together for informal communication which could be made formal if the Government of India approves the proposals being made by Pakistan.

(b) We also developed a Pakistan military – to – Indian civilian leadership channel of communication perhaps between Pakistan COAS and India’s National Security Adviser which worked well in 2021 in establishing the current ceasefire on the Line of Control.

(c) If a National Security Adviser (NSA) is appointed in the new government this would provide an additional channel for communication between India and Pakistan.

Conclusion

It is clear that the geo-political situation and the power balance are clearly in favour of India. Hence, the onus is not on India to improve relations with Pakistan. India should play it cool post the general elections and wait and watch what Islamabad will do. We can respond to some of their minor overtures while counselling patience on any big move. Clearly, there is a need to build a channel of communication with Pakistan’s army leader who will be in the driving seat as compared to the new Prime Minister.